Is Shah Mehmood’s political career over?

When former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi spoke his heart out first at a privately arranged press conference and then at a public rally in his hometown of Multan, the Zardari loyalists termed his remarks a lunatic act and a move out of sheer frustration following a well thought-out plan. They believed Mr Qureshi’s political career was over after his outbursts against his party leadership and it would be a sort of miracle if he was taken back into the fold by the Zardari-Gilani set-up.
But those within the PPP rank and file who have been out of favour of the current party high command for the last over three years endorse, though not openly, Mr Qureshi’s stand following his ousting from the federal cabinet. To some extent, their argument got substantiated with the rousing welcome the former foreign minister received in Multan, where he cautiously spoke against what he called spineless and blotted leadership mismanaging the country.
Another important and interesting narrative, which is under discussion in civil bureaucracy and political circles following the recent rifts within the PPP, is about the possibility of snap elections. On this very fact, they believe Mr Qureshi has rightfully decided to call it a day. It is not the issue of the ministry of foreign affairs or water and power, which reportedly was offered to Mr Qureshi that he refused to take oath of, but impending political development because of which he has decided to stay away.
According to a top government official, Mr Qureshi’s move was not a response to the call of his conscience that he has been saying after leaving the government over the Raymond Davis issue but he was taking guard for the next round of events which may or may not be in his favour. It may be recalled that for awhile after the 2008 general elections, Qureshi was ahead of Yousuf Raza Gilani to be picked as prime minister by PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari but lost in closing minutes of the race. Throughout the last three years, he could not get away with the feeling of the loss to Mr Gilani and never wore a smile on his face in the company of his city fellow (Mr Gilani). The prime minister has always considered him as a threat to his political influence in the party.
There is a difference of opinion about the chances of Mr Qureshi leaving the PPP and joining PML-N or heading a group of dissidents in the near future. However, the kind of confidence Mr Qureshi is exhibiting after his recent press conference and public rally obviously suggested that he has been given clear indications about possible changes in the near future otherwise he would have stayed put with the PPP. To make his presence felt in the media, Mr Qureshi has started addressing bar associations.
Sources close to the development said he had already taken the plunge and there was no turning back for him. He had no option but to reassess his political career sans the PPP; be with some other political party or his own faction on the lines of Aftab Ahmad Sherpao, former PPP stalwart and now head of his own faction of the party. Though according to some hardliners next year’s budget would not be announced by the present government, an increasing consensus is that the next elections will be held in September and October this year. However, a lot about these speculations would depend on PML-N and PPP in the coming days whose last three years’ collaboration in Punjab could be effectively characterised as a love-hate relationship.
Now that the PML-N leadership is in no mood of carrying on with the PPP ministers in the province, new battle lines are expected to be drawn on the political landscape of the country. Barbs have already started flying high on both sides coupled with tough political posturing. For example, PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif has called for unconditional apology from Sindh Interior Minister Zulfiqar Ali Mirza for bad-mouthing his party the other day. Whereas PPP Punjab leaders have in unequivocal terms started accusing PML-N leadership of horse-trading for their role in creating a forward bloc from PML-Q members of the provincial assembly in Punjab. On the other hand, Prime Minister Gilani is busy in buying more time for the implementation of PML-N’s economic and political reforms based a 10-point agenda.
The PML-N is having its crucial meeting on Friday — February 25 — in which it would decide in principle whether it would continue its working relationship with the PPP in the province.
According to a PML-N top gun, after March the party would be demanding early elections. One of the many reasons behind this demand, the experienced lawmaker who wields considerable power within the party high-up, said was the Senate elections due in March 2012. If the current stays put, the ruling PPP and its coalition partners would be gaining considerable ground in the upper house, thus, the PML-N leader said, the party wanted early elections. It is difficult to run the government when the upper house is dominated by opposition parties.
He said the party was already into election mode as by March this year it would be putting in place all its organisational tiers.